by Elisabeth Tweedie
Satellite 2026 was a little different from previous years. Firstly, the name change to Satellite and GovMilSpace, and secondly the exclusion of the press from some of the more interesting sessions. The justification for the latter was that the sessions were being run under Chatham House Rules. However, the Chatham House rule states: “When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.” Not that press are to be excluded.
There were several reoccurring themes running through the conferences this year, not all of which were on the agenda: sovereignty, data centers in space, multi-orbit and the upcoming IPO for SpaceX.
Sovereignty or nationalism was a constant theme, appearing in many sessions. Obviously, current world events are one of the key drivers for this is, as many nations and regional groups are feeling an increasing need to be self-reliant when it comes to anything connected to defense, and, as was pointed out in the Analysys Mason briefing held during the show, space is becoming a stronger component of national strategies. Supply chain issues are another factor propelling this growth. Many countries suffered shortages in various sectors during COVID, prompting a drive towards more self-reliance and shorter supply chains. A clear example of the increase in national defense spending on space can be seen in Germany, which has committed to spend US$ 41 Billion over the next five years, almost twice the amount that the European Space Agency (ESA) will spend. Another example of a nation’s desire for sovereignty, where defense is concerned, can be seen in Telesat’s Lightspeed payload, which has recently been modified so that 25% of the payload is dedicated to military Ka-band for the Canadian government. The European Union’s US$ 10 Billion, multi-orbit 254 satellite constellation IRIS2 is another example of the shift towards independence and non-reliance on the US. The constellation is designed to provide secure communication services to the EU and its Member States as well as broadband connectivity for European citizens, private companies and governmental authorities.
Prices of building and launching satellites have undoubtedly fallen in the last ten years, but owning a satellite, or constellation is still a major undertaking. One solution put forward by Patrick O’Neil, CTO BlackSky, operators of Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) satellites, is to give countries access to specific, dedicated satellites in a constellation. This would mean that updates would only occur when their satellite(s) passed overhead. However, if events mean that a customer temporarily needs more frequent access to information, they would have the option to buy more capacity on other satellites, in order to get more timely updates.
"...Multi-orbit is definitely one of the new buzz words, with service providers pointing out the advantages, for communications-on-the-move (COTM) clients, particularly maritime and aeronautical, which are more likely to traverse multiple satellite beams during the course of a journey..."
Data centers in space are receiving a lot of interest, several companies were already investing in them, before SpaceX announced its filing for one million satellites specifically for this purpose. Surging power requirements for terrestrial data centers, driven by their increased size due to artificial intelligence (AI) - an AI chip has 14 times the power consumption of a normal chip - is the key driver for placing them in space. However, Claude Rousseau, Research Director of Analysys Mason pointed out there are several obstacles to be overcome before these become reality, not least of which is the size of the market, he pointed out that the SpaceX filing, is the largest ever filing, and it’s “for a market that doesn’t yet exist.” Economic viability depends on four major issues: inexpensive launches, high production rates for satellites, faster time to operations and lastly, but my no means least, harnessing solar power efficiently. Current solar panels operate on 20% efficiency, significant improvements are needed before they can meet the demands of an orbital data center.
Multi-orbit is definitely one of the new buzz words, with service providers pointing out the advantages, for communications-on-the-move (COTM) clients, particularly maritime and aeronautical, which are more likely to traverse multiple satellite beams during the course of a journey. However, land-based vehicles may also do this. Moving from beam to beam can mean moving into a heavily congested beam, with consequent degradation of service. Being able to seamlessly switch to a different satellite which, at least for now, will be in a different orbit, from a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) for example, means that committed information rates (CIR) can be maintained. Dan Goldberg, CEO Telesat, commented that the requirement for multi-orbit was being driven by organizations that need “always on. “It’s more expensive to provide it, but governments are not cost sensitive customers,” he said. In the future, if just a few of the 280 planned LEO constellations come to fruition, multi-orbit may be replaced by multi-LEO. But that is a whole other story.
Being able to provide that seamless rollover of course depends on the ground equipment providers delivering hubs and antennas capable of doing this. There were many providers at the show demonstrating their capabilities in this sphere. Orbital Connect, for example exhibiting for the first time, showcased its solutions for multi-orbit. Kymeta was promoting its multi-band, multi-orbit single aperture user terminal. This terminal is able to transmit and receive Ka and Ku bands simultaneously, even if in different orbits. Currently in development, prototypes are due to be released to key customers later this year, with full commercial availability next year. The target market is government and defense.
Although not officially on the agenda, it was inevitable that much of the talk centered around the upcoming SpaceX IPO and the advisability of investing. Early investors in Apple and Amazon did extraordinarily well, but those companies went public at a young age. SpaceX is 24 years old, and has already experienced tremendous growth. The question is will Musk’s vision continue to reap the same rewards going forwards? Opinions varied widely as to whether the reported US$ 1.75 Trillion is likely to be attained, and if it is will Gwynne Shotwell, CEO who presumably has significant stock options, cash-in and depart? Other speculation focused both on the advantages and disadvantages of rolling the AI company into SpaceX, and whether the recent filing for one million satellites for data centers in space would ever come to fruition. Many, including, according to a recent article in Time Magazine, Gynne Shotwell, assume that the one million figure may never be attained.
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Elisabeth Tweedie is Associate Editor of the Satellite Executive Briefing has over 20 years experience at the cutting edge of new communications entertainment technologies. She is the founder and President of Definitive Direction (www.definitivedirection.com), a consultancy that focuses on researching and evaluating the long-term potential for new ventures, initiating their development, and identifying and developing appropriate alliances. She can be reached at: etweedie@definitivedirection.com
