During the most recent broadcasting trade shows since the IBC in Amsterdam last fall, 3D technology has been the buzz including the NAB show in Las Vegas early this month. The blockbuster success of 3D movies such as Avatar help fuel interest in 3D technology among tech-savvy consumers, but will 3D—essentially a recycled technology that was first introduced in the 50s and became a passing fad—deliver the goods this time around?
The difference now is that 3D has the full backing of the major TV manufacturers, Sony, Panasonic and Samsung, among others, who are making a big push to launch new 3D sets in the market this year. With the first round of 3D-capable TVs now reaching retail floors and plans for the top TV manufacturers to bring more products to market soon, DisplaySearch has increased its 2010 forecast for 3D-capable TV shipments. According to the latest Quarterly TV Design and Features Report, the market is forecast to grow from 2.5 million 3D-capable TVs shipped in 2010 to 27 million sets in 2013.
"We have passed the first hurdle," said Paul Gray, DisplaySearch Director of TV Electronics Research. "The critical Blu-ray 3D specification is written, but now comes the hard work of securing interoperability. Consumers will want reassurance that such things as 3D glasses will interoperate between brands. Retailers will also have the same demand to allow a thriving accessory market to develop. The next stage is less glamorous but vital to secure 3D’s long-term value. We have seen 3D crazes before, and sustained attention to detail is important to prevent disillusionment from starting."
At the NAB in Las Vegas, while almost every booth is hawking some form of 3D or 3D-compatible product, the general view among executives that I interviewed is more of a cautious optimism.
Perhaps the most compelling argument against 3D taking off in the next couple years at least is the fact consumers have just recently invested in HD sets and may not be inclined to put another US$ 3-4,000.00 on a new 3D set just yet.
The other issue with 3D is that in recent trials viewers weren’t exactly enamored with the experience, mainly because of the glasses you have to wear to watch 3D. During a Dallas Cowboys football game, where 80,000 spectators were treated to a huge 3D screen to enable them to view instant replays and close-ups of the game, the experience lasted all but seven minutes after it was aborted due to the protests by the viewers with their loud boos. The glasses are really a hurdle to 3D adoption as they come in different standards and some are specific only to one manufacturer’s set. So if you were to hold a viewing party at your house for say, 30 people, you’ll have to supply each of them a set of glasses.
There is a 3Dstandard that does not require glasses called "autostereoscopic 3D." However, most optimistic projections are that they are at least 10 years away.
Lisa Hobbs, Vice-President of Broadcast Compression Solutions of Ericsson summed it up "I think there really is a possibility that 3D can become the next HD. But it will all depend on how fast that rollout with develop. Clearly the early adopters will take to 3D, but we’re not really sure how fast that rollout will be."
Indeed, one important element in 3D adoption by consumers is the availability of content and more than any other technology, it has to be good content. 3D faded away in the 50s mainly due to lack of good content. In the multiplatform world we live in now, 3D has to compete with many media delivery systems and almost has to stand out to prevail.
This summer, there will be many 3D channels launching in Europe and the U.S. The most prominent of which will be ESPN HD launching in June with coverage of the FIFA Soccer World Cup from Johannesburg, South Africa. DirecTV will be broadcasting ESPN HD on its platform in June, along with a new network called N3D, an all-3D pay-per-view channel, and an on-demand station.
If 3D takes off, satellite service providers will definitely get a boost since it requires at least twice the bandwidth to transmit 3D programming as opposed to HDTV and up to four times that of standard definition television. That’s probably why SES has entered into an agreement with Samsung to launch a 3D demo channel on March 4 in Europe. The demo channel will be broadcast free-to-air via ASTRA’s orbital position 23.5 degrees East, and is intended to help retailers promote 3D television to end-consumers at the point of sale.
Meanwhile, Britain’s BSkyB has been broadcasting Premier League football in pubs and bars and planning a 24/7 Sky 3D channel this fall. Russian satellite operator RSCC announced plans to use capacity for 3D services; and Korea’s SkyLife launched a 24-hour 3D channel in January.
3D has its share of detractors. At the Milken Institute Global Conference, CBS Corp. President and Chief Executive Les Moonves is not totally convince that the time is right to make a heavy investment in transitioning to 3D.
"Does the experience get good enough on television to work? I’m not sure it’s going to be economically viable for the near future," he said.
For movies and sports, 3D is a natural migration. That’s why ESPN is going for it in a big way. What about the other types of programming? Do you really need to see low-intensity shows like dramas and sitcoms which are very popular in most parts of the developing in 3D?
I remember the first HDTV demonstration I saw at the now defunct Montreaux Broadcasting exhibition in Switzerland in 1996. It certainly was most impressive, but HD did not take of until almost 10 years later and even now, HD programming in the US is less than 20 percent of all channels available in satellite or cable platforms.
3D has an advantage in its rollout over previously introduced formats like HDTV. With rising consumer expectations, 3D is the natural progression that video will be leading up to in the foreseeable future. After all, we live our lives in 3D and art always imitates life—so isn’t the ultimate objective of viewing experiences is to approximate the look and feel or real life?
Are we ready for 3D in the home? Perhaps. But will it be in the optimistic numbers that the analysts are projecting? Maybe not in the time-frame that they are thinking. Technology adoption takes time, as we have seen with HD technology. More so, when competing technologies have a headstart. So, I wouldn’t bet the farm on 3D just yet. But is it the future? Definitely. The question is, when?
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Virgil Labrador is the Editor-in-Chief of Satellite Markets and Research based in Los Angeles, California. He is the author of two books on the satellite industry and has been covering the industry for various publications since 1998. Before that he worked in various capacities in the industry, including a stint as marketing director for the Asia Broadcast Center, a full-service teleport based in Singapore. He can be reached at virgil@satellitemarkets.com
