Knowing the enemy is the key to defeating the enemy. In terms of North Korea, one is not sure whether its behavior is merely posturing or one that could lead to serious conflict. It is thus not surprising to see Seoul allocate funds towards the purchase as well as the development of its own UAV program in order to keep a closer eye on North Korea. The capability is becoming even more paramount as 2012 approaches when it will take over wartime operational control of its military from the United States.
It was reported by Aviation Week on 11 March 2011 that a “handshake agreement” exists for South Korea to be able to buy four (4) RQ-4B Global Hawk Block 30i UAVs from the U.S., which will include high resolution day/night cameras as well as synthetic aperture radar. A DSCA (Defense Security Cooperation Agency) notification is expected soon, with 1st delivery targeted for 2014.
Seoul has been trying to purchase UAVs from the U.S. since 2005. However, the MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) Treaty of 1987, which was amended in 1992, prevented UAV sales from taking place. The amendment included unmanned systems capable of delivering nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
With growing tensions as well as 2012 looming, the U.S. appears to be more amenable to international UAV sales. Moreover and perhaps equally important is the fact that the UAV market appears to be becoming more competitive. With a price tag that could reach above $100 million per Global Hawk, these revenue streams may be too attractive to pass up, especially when South Korea is developing its own UAV program and when other nations could potentially plug the gap and secure UAV sales prior to Seoul’s capability of becoming self-reliant. European manufacturers such as Germany’s EuroHawk or Israel’s SIGINT payload are available options for sales and/or partnerships for jointly developing Seoul’s UAV.
Other nations including Japan and Singapore are looking at UAV purchases as well. Should the U.S. continue to say no to South Korea, potential buyers will likely go to other manufacturers instead.
Demand for UAVs has been dominated by the U.S. thus far. However, other nations are beginning to account for higher demand, which translates to higher demand as well for entities outside the U.S. Military. The increase in non-U.S. owned and operated UAVs signals sustained demand for satellite bandwidth as well as integration, engineering and other services associated with supporting ISR missions.
Bottom Line
The non-U.S. Military UAV market is currently nascent. In NSR’s view, key countries in Asia, including South Korea, Japan and Singapore will be key markets for UAV manufacturers, systems integrators and satellite operators. More importantly, as China and India develop their own capabilities either by indigenous growth or through purchases, the race to provide better UAV capabilities will lead to high market growth for the Asian region.
Regulatory aspects such as the MTCR Treaty will also be crucial as it will affect the market entry of individual manufacturers and solutions providers in key markets.
Information for this article
was extracted from NSR's report
Government and Military Satellite Communications, 7th Edition
