Point Topic Forecasts Fixed Broadband Lines will Reach Nearly 1 Billion by 2020

London, UK, May 22, 2014--Point Topic in its latest set of global broadband forecasts, predicts that the worldwide number of fixed broadband lines will reach 989.4 million by the end of December 2020.

While the growth rate appears relatively static, it is not as strong as some previous estimates. The forecasts are based on individual growth calculations for 114 countries which are supplemented by combined calculation for remaining countries and territories. Further details on our forecasting methodology are included later in this report.

 Figure 1: World broadband subscriber forecasts to 2020. Source – Point Topic.

Differences in broadband subscriber growth across the world are driven by how developed the market is within a particular country. We use three different classifications depending on the age of the market: emerging, youthful and mature*. Point Topic can see very clear differences in growth rates for each type of market below.

Figure 2: World broadband forecasts to 2020 by market type. Source – Point Topic

Point Topic uses the Gompertz Curve to forecast global broadband growth. The Gompertz Curve has been used for modelling consumer behaviour in a number of instances for at least the last 50 years. It has proven to be an accurate and powerful tool for predicting the diffusion of technology products through a consumer universe.

Broadband forecasts are generated for the 114 countries with the highest broadband subscriber numbers, as well as a general curve addressing growth in the rest of the world.

Individual forecasts for 114 countries at quarterly intervals up to December 2020 are published in Point Topic’s Global Broadband Statistics service.