BryceTech projects near-term growth in spacecraft and heavy-lift launches open to U.S. commercial providers, driven primarily by the deployment of megaconstellations.

Near-term the average annual number of spacecraft open to launch from U.S. providers is about 3,100, with about 1,900 being non-Starlink spacecraft. Between 2029 and 2033, the average is about 2,500 spacecraft per year.

Heavy-lift launches will play a central role, with an estimated annual average of 110 launches from 2024 to 2028, decreasing to an average 50 launches annually from 2029 to 2033.

We are witnessing a major transformation driven by the integration of software-defined satellites (SDS) with virtualized, scalable, and orchestrated ground networks, where flexibility in space meets flexibility on the ground. The combination of these technologies marks a fundamental shift, enabling satellite operators to deliver services with flexibility, responsiveness, and greater efficiency. As SDS are being launched, ground network architectures are rapidly evolving to support the increased adaptability and sophistication that SDS promises, prioritizing three key elements:

The satellite ecosystem has been going through a period of tremendous change and growth overthe last few years. According to Euroconsult (now known as Novaspace), the global space economy grew over 34% in the five years to 2023 to be worth US$ 509 billion and is projected to continue growing to reach US$759 billion by 2030. A lot of this growth is attributed to “New Space,” a generic term, referring to the rapid changes taking place in the satellite ecosystem.

Novaspace, a merger between Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners, one of the leading space consulting and market intelligence firm, has released its 12th annual report ‘New Prospects for In-Flight Connectivity’ which reveals continued growth in the market. It highlights key global trends, including an increase in connected aircraft, the rise of NGSO-based satellite services and the growing impact of mergers and collaborations between service providers.