From Capitol Hill, Via Geneva, to Accelerating the HTS “Teenage” Dynamic
by Martin Jarrold
London, UK, October 3, 2018--The fourth quarter 2018 calendar features two of GVF’s regular major events – one in Washington DC in October presented in partnership with COMSYS, the other in London at the beginning of December, part of the GVF-EMP portfolio – and in November we have another of the association’s important innovations, a Workshop Symposium collaboration with the International Telecommunication Union.
The 2017 inaugural VSAT Congress presented a much lauded opportunity to learn from world-changing thinkers and innovators in the satellite communications VSAT industry, and on 15th & 16th October 2018, the 2018 program (https://www.vsatcongress.com/), again hosted at the offices of Jones Day on Capitol Hill, will offer the opportunity for attendees to engage directly with keynote speakers and open-forum executive roundtables that will feature leading LEO, MEO and GEO satellite operators, VSAT service providers, manufacturers, customers, and subject-matter experts.
The VSAT Congress will address itself to resolving the debate and finding answers on such strategic issues and key questions as: Can the industry defend in the fight for frequencies? | To what extent does industry need to integrate with terrestrial services? | How can VSAT become an essential extension of the 5G infrastructure? | Can the industry integrate different orbital constellations? | Are LEOs, MEOs and HAPS a threat or opportunity? | Are standardization and commoditization an inevitability? | … As well as many more.
The Congress will additionally encompass such facets of current industry dialogue as: VSAT terminal cost viability and technology developments; industry’s ability to compete on data pricing and data volume requirements; the survival of independent VSAT operators; differentiation and competitive advantage; VSAT’s place in an industrial IoT world; strategies for seamless GEO, MEO and LEO connectivity; cyber security; potential for constellation collision and catastrophic collapse; and, analyzing viable business structures and strategies and investor belief in satellite’s continuing potential.
The Day One program will feature series of keynote addresses and panel discussion sessions which will include key figures from across the industry’s major and emerging players and related stakeholders, in alphabetical order): Aurora, BridgeSat, Clarke Belt 2.0 Project, Dynamic Spectrum Alliance, Globecomm, Hawkeye360, Hispasat, Hughes, iDirect, Integrasys, Newtec, NxGen Partners, Panasonic Avionics Corporation, Talia, Telesat, Trinity Advisers, and UHP Networks. Discussion will center on such themes as re-thinking business models, the highs and lows of twinning GEOs and LEOs, market demand for cost-effective roaming and switching flexibility in VSAT platforms, acquisitions and consolidations. A final panel session will investigate Strange Technology Stretches.
The second day will continue with keynote analyses from ViaSat, Yachtprojects International/Procom365, Global Eagle, and Spacecom, together with panel discussion sessions, including a focus on FPCESPAAILWMMMCRE – Flat Panel, Conformable, Electronically Steerable, Phased Array, Auto Install, LightWeight, Meta-Material, Multi-Constellation, Reliable, Efficient – antenna development which will be discussed by representatives of (in alphabetical order): Alcan Systems, C-COM Satellite Systems, Gilat, Intellian, Isotropic Systems, Kymeta, and Phasor.
Additionally, the VSAT Congress will provide the satellite community another opportunity to meet GVF’s new Secretary General, David Meltzer, who took up his appointment on 27th August.
The headquarters of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) will host around 400 delegates from 150 countries at the World Radiocommunication Seminar 2018 between 3rd and 7th December. In addition, on 29th and 30th November, the ITU will collaborate with GVF in presenting a two-day Workshop Symposium focused on capacity building, will the objective of providing exposure to information about latest technology innovations in satellite communications; creating a greater level of understanding of the rapid mobilization of satellite based communication links; promoting skills and tools for reduction and mitigation of satellite interference; and, elevating understanding of satellite communications regulatory, policy & spectrum coordination issues.
Also taking place in early December, on the 4th of the month, will be the GVF-EMP HTS Roundtable 2018… GEOs… MEOs… LEOs: Enabling a Brave New World (www.uk-emp.co.uk/current-events/hts-roundtable-2018/). The Roundtables have taken place only for the last four or five years and in that time whilst the range of their program discussion themes has well reflected the unique dynamism of the high throughput environment, this will be the first opportunity to acknowledge that the HTS era has reached its teenage years.
Yes, the HTS era is 13-years-old, an era that began with Thaicom 4/IPstar’s 45 Gbps of Ku-band launched in August 2005. That most well-known of Thaicom’s orbiting assets will still be in service in 2022, and perhaps to 2024, by which time the time many of the drawing board mega-constellations of today will be above us in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since the debut of HTS, 13 years ago, the high-throughput technology and service market has undergone much change, including exponential growth potential in the market for satellite-based broadband solutions, a massive expansion in in-orbit capacity, and a downward trend in capacity pricing. Now, soon, the LEOs – and maybe more medium Earth orbit (MEO) systems too – will aggregate into the orbital equation.
After seeing HTS systems and technology advance over the Americas, Europe and Africa, global and regional operators in Asia are beginning to direct their attention to launching HTS satellites in large numbers, bringing the HTS focus back full circle to the region where it all started.
The rapidity of change in HTS will be a key focus in London. The program will offer an in-depth exploration of the drivers and trends behind the continuing massive growth potential in the market for satellite-based broadband solutions, extending to an evaluation of the opportunities arising from a host of new applications that are being enabled through the deployment of more-highly bandwidth efficient networks.
There are aspects of the industry’s ride to orbit that these days show it far from being a smooth one, and here too there is an Asian connection.
Space Systems/Loral, builder of Thaicom 4/IPstar, is reportedly considering exiting the GEO business. This is news that follows on from market analysis that has shown that in the last three years or so orders for traditional GEO spacecraft have fallen away, 26 in 2014, to 15 in 2016, and only seven in 2017. However, whilst the final 2018 count for new GEO satellite orders may not be much better, we do have, as noted above – and in the context of the general trend for increasing numbers of more powerful HTS spacecraft in orbit – the swing to increasing HTS capacity over Asia as exemplified in SES-12, Eutelsat-172b, Intelsat/JSAT Horizons-3e, Telesat/APT Satellite Telstar-18 Vantage/Apstar-5C, and more AsiaPac HTS capacity being on the way from Kacific, China Satcom and mu Space. Measat, too, hopes to have orbited by 2021 HTS capacity to provide broadband services.
HTS capacity is getting progressively cheaper. Current and future generations of HTS platforms provide capacity at prices significantly lower than that of the first generation exemplified by Thaicom 4/IPstar, prices which mean that satellite operators are moving into the provision of services space in addition to providing raw capacity. Downward trends in satellite capacity pricing – arising from the increasing numbers of more powerful HTS spacecraft in orbit – is a significant market shift. Whilst, as Northern Sky Research (NSR) has shown, capacity price erosion is slowing, prices are now trending between 35% and 60% lower than two years ago, and this slide will continue into 2019. (Note: NSR’s analysis addressed only GEO, excluding the MEO O3b constellation and upcoming LEO mega-constellation–based systems.)
NSR identified multiple factors that are contributing to the continued pricing decline. In the longer term the planned LEO constellations, with their promises of lower pricing, may amplify pricing and capacity concerns. HTS supply growth from GEO spacecraft will be overshadowed by the emergence of NGSO constellations, projects that promise massive volumes of capacity supply, low latency and global (or near-global) coverage. NGSO-HTS projects such as the continued expansion of O3b in MEO, and OneWeb, SpaceX, Telesat and LeoSat in LEO would combine to add over of 40 Tbps of capacity. And, there is the promise of more to come.
However, there is always a caveat. In this case the caveat is that the LEOs are not yet being manufactured, much less launched, and their multibillion dollar financing no longer looks as secure as the confidence of original business plans suggested. Key to this confidence is the LEO constellation model ability to deliver low-cost capacity to address the underserved consumer broadband market, the only market segment capable of absorbing the enormous quantities of new satellite capacity. However, making the consumer market viable requires low-priced consumer hardware in the form of flat panel, non-mechanically steered, antennas the market availability of which remains a short-term uncertainty.
Against this broad and complex contextual background the key interesting questions to be considered during the HTS Roundtable 2018… GEOs… MEOs… LEOs: Enabling a Brave New World are myriad. Just some examples are: Are operator offerings essentially the same? | Which operators are taking only the Ka band route to new services delivery, and which are developing multiband service strategies in their HTS play? | Where are hybrid technology solutions to be positioned? | Are the operators forging into direct competition with their own solution re-seller customers? | How will the GEO-HTS and mega-LEO services compete… or will they be complementary? | Will GEO-HTS and LEO-HTS systems augment each other and network together? | Is all high throughput alike? | Where will latency issues fit into any potential future “coopertition” dialog? | Do HTS solutions represent a stronger defense against cyber-attacks, or are they a point of vulnerability? | How are regional market variations being reflected in the offerings which comprise regional operator initiatives? | How are such high demand applications markets as PSTN infrastructure extension/telco trunking, broadband Internet access, and mobile terrestrial backhaul for GSM & 3G to LTE & 4G on planes, trains & ships to be satisfied? | and, Who will come out on top among the satellite operators, the manufacturers, integrators, network licensees and, ultimately, the users amongst the wireless operators, maritime & aeronautical interests, oil & gas companies, military, civil government agencies, and the individual consumer?
Across a keynote opening address and four 90-minute themed interactive panel sessions the HTS Roundtable 2018… GEOs… MEOs… LEOs: Enabling a Brave New World will offer an exploration of the ongoing evolution in the underpinning business and market economics of HTS, continuing to zoom-in on a range of specific analyses on the HTS ecosystem, including: The changing focus of the operators & evolution in the space segment; Emerging threats and opportunities for re-sellers in the value chain; Technology shifts in the ground segment; and, Mobility as the core revolutionary dynamic in today’s broadband satcoms.
As at 1st October the HTS Roundtable 2018 draft program is as follows:
Opening Keynote Address: Satellite’s Accelerating New Dynamics – Expanding Markets, Enhanced Services, Evolving Technology Platforms
Roundtable Session 1: The Operators… New Focus & New Orbits Constellations Reimagined | HTS Supply – the Aeronautical & Maritime Corridors | Is the “App” Now Driving Satellite Design | HTS, the Cloud & IoT | Bandwidth – (Price) Wars in Space? | Orbits & Latency – A Competitive Divide? | Competing Down the Value Chain | How will GEO HTS & the Mega-LEOs Compete?
Roundtable Session 2: The VARs… New Challenges in an HTS World Transforming the Satellite Broadband Value Proposition | Changing the Satellite Internet Paradigm | Today’s Most Dynamic Markets | Changing Throughput/Pricing Dynamics | Cloud & the IoT – New Opportunity to the VAR Proposition? | What Does the Mobile Market Need from VARs?
Roundtable Session 3: The Ground Segment… Evolving Dynamics Next Generation HTS Mobility Solutions | VSAT Antennas… Getting Smaller, the Changing Form Factor | Parabolic to Phased Array… Markets & Scales Characterized | In the Cyber Zone… Best Practice in Vendor & Customer Collaboration | Growth in Terminal Numbers & Interference Dynamics | Terminal Cost, Design & Function… Does the Customer Get What the Customer Wants?
Roundtable Session 4: Mobility, Mobility, Mobility Where Next for Mobility? | HTS for IoT on Land, on Sea, in the Air | Mobile Trunking & Backhaul – A Defining Role with Satellite Integration in the 5G Mobile World? | Mobility – Who Are the End Users? | Navigating a Changing Value Chain – Acquisitions & Alliances | But, What about Enterprise VSAT, Consumer Broadband, Video, Government & Military?
Registration for the HTS Roundtable 2018… GEOs… MEOs… LEOs: Enabling a Brave New World is open.
See you on 4th December at London’s Strand Palace Hotel. You can contact me for more information at martin.jarrold@gvf.org.
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*Martin Jarrold is the Chief of International Program Development of GVF. He can be reached at martin.jarrold@gvf.org.
