Set Top Operating Systems Forecast 2025-2030

Bristol, UK, April 16, 2025 --Rethink TV, from Rethink Technology Research, has published its latest report, "Set Top Operating Systems Forecast 2025-2030". While the golden age of the set top is over and the industry is in managed decline, device shipments are holding up better than expected and the battle over their software foundations has intensified, accordign to the report.

Operators now face a strategic crossroads. Should they double down on the set top — with all the platform, UX, and capex implications that entails — or chart a course toward full app-based service delivery?

This report offers the tools to inform that decision.
 

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Set Top OS Market Forecast – 2025-2030 

Pay TV operators enter era of managed decline as video device strategies pivot to app-first ecosystems 

The installed base of operator-supplied set top boxes will fall from 920.7 million units in 2025 to just 818.7 million by 2030, according to a new forecast from Rethink TV. This represents a decline of 11.1%, confirming that the global set top market is now firmly in a period of managed decline. 

The forecast comes as operators around the world increasingly pivot away from traditional hardware investments in favor of OTT app strategies, Smart TV integrations, and broadband-first bundles. Yet the transition is far from complete. Despite shrinking sales, operator set tops will still ship in the region of 150–180 million units annually through the rest of the decade, driven by replacement demand, regional broadband disparities, and a residual appetite for managed video delivery. 

North America will see the sharpest contraction, as consumers abandon legacy Pay TV offerings and shift toward retail devices and direct-to-consumer apps. Though also in decline, Europe will retain over 209 million operator set tops by 2030, due largely to its Free-to-Air culture and regulation-driven bundling. Latin America, however, will see an increase in its Installed Base of set tops, as they aid the slow creep of broadband and OTT video services. 

Asia Pacific remains the largest regional base by volume but will shrink considerably as mobile-first viewing and retail smart TVs increasingly dominate. MENA, while numerically smaller, will also decline steadily, with many operators still reliant on broadcast infrastructure. 

Android-based operating systems, particularly Android TV and its Operator Tier variant, now dominate new set top deployments. The combination of a fast time-to-market, integrated OTT ecosystem, and strong brand appeal has seen Android capture increasing share even as overall volumes decline. However, operators are growing wary of platform lock-in, data transparency, and long-term strategic dependence on Google. 

HarmonyOS will continue to plateau as a China and APAC-centric play, unable to scale globally due to political and regulatory constraints. AOSP-based deployments, once popular in cost-sensitive markets, are losing ground as OTT app integration becomes more complex.  

Meanwhile, RDK remains popular with North American cable operators, especially Comcast, which continues to promote the X1 platform. But elsewhere, momentum has stalled. Vodafone’s pivot to Android TV in Europe marked a significant blow to RDK’s international ambitions. Concerns over cost, complexity, and engineering overheads have forced multiple operators to cancel or postpone RDK projects midstream. 

Operators must now make hard decisions about the role of CPE in their video strategies. With consumer behavior skewing younger and more mobile-first, and the availability of high-quality retail Smart TVs rising, operators can no longer afford to view set tops as default infrastructure. This is not a market poised for rebound, so how the steepening decline is navigated will define operator fortunes over the next five years. 

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This is the latest forecast in the Rethink TV Archive, which now includes: 

  • Set Top OS Forecast
  • Sports Rights Forecast
  • 5G Broadcast Adoption Forecast 
  • Content Security Forecast 
  • Operator KPIs and Technology Choices
  • Open Internet Contributions Protocols 
  • Content Recommendations Forecast 
  • CDN and Media over QUIC (QoC) Forecast
  • FAST Market Forecast 
  • SVoD & Ad-Supported Market Forecast 
  • AVoD Forecast 
  • WiFi Market Forecast
  • Operator Technology Choices and KPIs 
  • The Unstoppable Rise of Social Media Video 
  • Impact of Strikes and Inflation on Content Spending 
  • Set Top & Smart TV and Connected TV Device Operating System Forecast 
  • Media & Entertainment Codecs Market 
  • Sports Rights Forecast 
  • Investigating the Energy Use of Video Delivery and Consumption
  • Video Delivery Market Forecast
  • Open Internet Contribution Protocols Forecast