A Perspective on PTC 2025

by Bruce R. Elbert, President, Application Technology Strategy

Honolulu, Hawaii, January 24, 2025--For someone who has attended the Pacific Telecommunications Conference (PTC) since the 1980s, the event this year proved vital to its future. Held in Honolulu from January 18 – 22, 2025, the conference blew out all records for participation. They now feature themselves as promoting not just telecom, but the broader domain of digital infrastructure. Telecom is at the center to connect islands and continents, but they have introduced aspects of computing and data, lately represented through the cloud and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Major ingredients are fiber optic cables, satellites, and huge data centers with associated support.

This PTC reversed the downward trend set over the past 10 years as this session hosted over 4,000 paid attendees (a 40% increase over 2024). There was substantial interest in how and where data centers would be established, addressing the financial, physical and electrical needs of computing resources that are experiencing exponential growth in the Asia Pacific region. How these get connected to each other and to the Internet requires more fiber than ever before; yet the reliability of fiber is subject to question as several breaks took months rather than days to repair. This opens up the need for high capacity 24/7 satellite communications facilities in GEO and NGSO as well. Starlink among the NGSOs was mentioned frequently as an important new facility for broadband throughout the region, and a disrupter of the status quo and savior to remote locations. 

Sessions at the PTC 2025 in Honolulu, Hawaii this year were fully packed and some were even standing room only.  (image courtesy of PTC)

Addressing the Digital Divide

The PTC has concerned itself with the shortfall of telecommunications in general and broadband in particular in this vast region. It was revealed that in 2025, all nations in the Pacific will have at least one fiber connection but many inhabited islands will remain unwired. Regardless, satellites will continue in the long term as a viable backup in the event of failure of terrestrial infrastructure. Operators need to consider mobile phone device access, which are especially popular among young people. Satellite can still perform the backhaul function for cell sites in remote places, thus delivering streaming services to handheld devices.

The Year of the NGSOs

Non-Geostationary Orbit satellites (NGSOs), especially Starlink, have impacted existing GEO-based operations around Asia Pacific and the globe. Operations around the region have seen a significant but not substantial decline in existing satellite communications businesses. Some Geostationary Orbit (GEO)-based players are also resellers for Starlink, but the service is “sub-grade” as opposed to commercial “carrier grade”. This means that Starlink is sold as is and without commercial “service level agreements” (SLAs) where the service provider gives assurances of availability, latency and guaranteed data throughput. 

One of these providers said that it had been “punched in the face” in the last 18 months by the availability and affordability of Starlink. There may be no SLA covering throughput and latency, “but it’s working”. Someone pointed out that the stock market value of SpaceX and Starlink jointly is greater than the rest of the enter satellite communications industry. It was observed that while it may be difficult to “pencil out” a business case for a GEO satellite, everything in GEO is proven, the antennas are fixed, and the service very stable. Perhaps there is opportunity for small GEO satellites with many spot beams in a trend back toward sovereign systems, but at least one potential did not proceed “when they saw the price tag”.

There is a need for very high bandwidth point to point links for restoration of fiber cable outages. This involves both space and ground segments, which tend toward small capacities relative to what cables can deliver. And, there are examples where a telecom carrier could not get its satellite backup circuit working fast enough after a fiber cut. Repairing a fiber cut can take weeks if not months and you are forced to prioritize the traffic since everything cannot be restored until the fiber itself is repaired.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Fact versus Fiction – Separating Hype from Reality

This interesting session addressed the question for literally everyone in attendance, so the large ballroom was packed with standing room only. Panelists included academics from Columbia University Business School and Keio University, Japan, along with GPU chip maker Nvidia, and major regional players in data center development and operation. The prevailing view is that the current applications of AI are still limited, mainly “chat-boxes” like ChatGPT. Still, corporations in health care and pharmaceuticals are starting to use it. As a technology, AI is decades old and it reappears at the forefront from time to time. But, this time, the potential impact is big in terms of the data centers that require computing resources, fiber connections and, importantly, electrical power.

Columbia Business School is positive but realistic. “Nobody’s making money, and the value is overstated in the near term.”  He cited the doomsday scenarios for loss of privacy and even humanity. Nvidia, the 25 year old GPU chip maker that has benefited the most from the AI craze, described its desire to promote more AI application and collaboration among the providers. This burgeoning industry needs more in the way of application and its exploitation from the initial start with chat-box and a few others. Keio University said they need the Japanese government to take a role because electricity is expensive in Japan, and a lot of development is needed to produced innovation. He mentioned the idea of artificial drone “bees” to pollinate farms and orchards.

But the data center providers worry about the payoff from a long-term investment. “An 18 month market doesn’t make it for a 40 year investment” in a data center and associated power resources. Columbia Business School expressed optimism about the electrical power situation in the US with the new administration’s policy of “drill, baby drill”. Health care will improve – you will get a diagnosis online, reducing inequality of the service and stress on the health care system. In general, business models will change or be modified.

The Leap to the Data Economy

The annual satellite leaders luncheon highlights trends for the satellite segment of the global telecommunications industry. Today’s panel concerned itself with the monumental impact of Starlink on existing providers and users. Service providers from Italy, the US and Alaska stated that they have adopted Starlink where it fits best but other GEO and NGSO systems can still compete based on the requirements. One said that they acquired a former GEO video uplink site and converted it to NGSO for data because it already had a lot of digital support. The site was also close to the digital access point.

To obtain multi-orbit coverage, there is the prospect of chip sets that can be used in ground terminals under software control. This can be extended to terrestrial cellular to connect either by space or ground. Some of the Starlink gateways are actually installed in Asia on top of data centers. Intellian, which has provided the first user terminals for OneWeb, now has a flat panel as well as a portable gateway antenna solution. The new NGSO operators are dealing with the regulatory challenges, like introducing services in difficult countries like Brazil.

The moderator asked each participant for their reason for taking parting in PTC 25. All expressed that its value is the opportunity to meet with others and seek mutual opportunities. One example was that he found potential partners and providers with valuable experience and contacts to facilitate work in the region. Another stated that he is learning about technical developments that were not apparent.

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Bruce Elbert is the Founder and President of Application Strategy LLC ( www.applicationstrategy.com).  He is a satellite industry expert, communications engineer, project leader and consultant with over 50 years experience in communications and  space-based systems in the public and private sectors. Areas of expertise include space segment design and operation in all orbit domains, systems architecture and engineering, ground segment systems engineering, development and operation, overall system performance improvement, and organizational development. He has been an expert witness in legal proceedings related to radio communication system performance, patents, construction contracts, service agreements, RFI identification and resolution, and taxation. He can be reached at: bruce@applicationstrategy.com