PTC'24 Highlight Developing Trends in the Satellite Industry by Bruce Elbert

by Bruce Elbert

Honolulu, Hawaii, February 1, 2024--The Pacific Telecommunications Council (PTC) Conference (PTC'24) held in Honolulu, Hawaii from January 21-24 continues with the same format post COVID and maintains its position as the primary event in the Asia-Pacific Region for telecommunications via fiber, satellite and cellular wireless. The satellite presence is about 25% of the sessions and attendance, yet the level of individuals and the topics covered are very germane to understanding the state of the satellite communications industry and what we expect in coming years. 

Outside of Japan, Korea, Singapore and possibly China and India, the Asia Pacific region has been challenged to keep up with the western world as far as innovation in telecommunications. However, the role of satellite communications has been important in delivering basic services across the broad region and vast expanses of water. The one MEO constellation, O3b, has a solid foothold in some of the Pacific Islands and the LEO constellations, especially Starliink, are in use in some of these countries. Still GEO satellites and their operators remain solid in their commitment to this technology and maintaining the capacity needed to address this demand for bandwidth.

PITA Meeting

This is the annual meeting of the Pacific Islands Telecommunciations Association (PITA) held during PTC’24 and attended by telecom representatives from various Pacific island nations. Only one of the presentations related to satellite communications and it dealt with a specific implementation of a diversity link to back up the fiber cable connection to Palau. This happens to be an independent nation that is tied to the US for various support. What is encouraging is that the provider, Intelsat, has made a commitment to Palau in a new strategy for them. Rather than just offering transponder capacity, they have engineered the ground facilities and worked in conjunction with a local company to implement this service. The local partner, Palau National Communications Corporation (PNCC), is the Republic of Palau's national carrier for local and international telecommunications services. They are based in Airai, Palau. 

Intelsat is providing capacity on two different satellites: IS-18 satellite (180.0 EL) C -Band and Intelsat H3e (169.0 EL) Ku Band. The objective - bring reliable Internet connectivity to remote islands. This was presented by Robert Suber, Intelsat regional marketing manager. Intelsat blended managed trunking services with thin route terminals on remote islands. Suber showed a solution for new connectivity and resilience for satellite backup design for submarine cables, involving hosted FlexEnterprise fully managed network configurations and single end-to-end solutions for SD-WAN, IP trunking, dual satellites, and dual teleports. SD-WAN is a terrestrial standard for broadband wide area networks that has been adapted to satellite links. The standard is applied broadly for private networks over IP infrastructure, but the satellite angle had not been resolved until recently. The integration this offers is demonstrated by the Intelsat dual path to overlay fiber connectivity.

If you missed the PTC in Hawaii this year, the PTC will have a booth at SATELLITE 2024 in Washington, DC, from March 18 – 21, 2024 (booth # 905). Members and supporters may have use of the booth through the reservations system.

The representative from PNCC expressed pleasure with what Intelsat has done for Palau. The dual path network (C and Ku band) serves small island communities with as few as 100 inhabitants. The total population of the Palau nation is approximately 14,000.

Designing the Digital Ground Segment of the Future 

Intellian is working on flat panel antennas with separate surfaces for transmit and receive, on display at the PTC.(photo by Bruce Elbert)

The World Teleport Association (WTA) held the ground-segment related session on the Sunday of PTC’24 week and is usually attended by companies engaged in satellite services and new applications. The panel was a blend of these organizations and the discussion was focused on various parts of the system, including ground networks, teleport services, mobile antennas and high power amplifiers (HPAs). The discussion was timely and pointed in regard to current trends in the market.

Participants include: John Brader, EVP Satellite Services, SageNet (a major VSAT network operator), Chris Faletra, President, COMSAT Teleports, A Goonhilly Company (an operator of two US teleports that has merged with UK teleport operator, Goonhilly), and Steve Richeson, VP Sales & Marketing, Mission Microwave Technologies (a leading manufacturer of Ku and Ka band solid state HPAs). The moderator was Michael Kreiner of Intellian (a supplier of auto-pointing antennas recognized for its support of LEO operator OneWeb).

The intended topic relates to integrated networks and earth station automation involved with teleports and ground segment. As such, software would be a natural topic. The first question addressed the interface between the earth station and the Internet, described as that between IP and RF. This is critical because the uplink/downlink chain starts with data at the input, which is IP, and converts and adapts it to the RF link from ground to space. However, the issue here is how you properly interface customer IP information and applications to the ground station and ultimately the satellite. True, it is a difficult matter since many problems arise when this interface is ignored until the last minute or the design of the RF portion does not support the intended network and purpose. It could be a matter of writing and verifying the proper software for control and adaptation, provided that the ground station has the needed capabilities internal to it.

The comment was made that the engineers who design and test ground segments don’t actually point the antennas themselves, as might have happened in years past. Automation performs this function since it is generally known where the satellite is located at any given time. Faletra of COMSAT said that the Goonhilly station has the needed software engineers to support software development to meet the various deep space missions that they support. He said that the two COMSAT stations in the US are being upgraded to support deep space as this is the Goonhilly strong suit.

Kreiner of Intellian stated that the market wants a small antenna and terminal that covers Ku and Ka bands, and can be applied to LEO, MEO and GEO, “but we are a few years off.” Richeson of Mission Microwave correctly pointed out that the RF requirements for the different orbits differ greatly (by as much as 30 dB between LEO and GEO), “so if you design for GEO you may be overdesigned for LEO.”

Brader of SageNet explained that the trend for him is to reduce the number of teleports to be more efficient. Richeson said his company supplies the majority of solid state Ku and Ka band HPAs to earth stations, and sees how predistortion of waveforms helps compensate for amplifier nonlinearity, which can improve efficiency by many percentage points. “You can have a basic amplifier but compensate using predistortion.” He said that Mission Microwave produces good HPAs that are based on the yield of production and are not mass produced like cellphones. “It’s not like the chip business. More quantity means greater expense.”

Faletra was asked about putting a data center at the teleport and he explained that COMSAT has been doing this for some time. Kreiner of Intellian, which had produced reflector antennas with mechanical steered mounts, is working on flat panels with separate surfaces for transmit and receive. They are working with SageNet. 

Satellite Leaders Luncheon

This is the principal event related to satellite communications as it is always well attended, including senior managers and executives from many organizations from the US, Europe and Asia Pacific. The nature of PTC is that people feel more at ease and willing to be pretty open in their questions and comments. This year, the industry faces challenges from the apparent strength of the NGSO sector and from the maturity of the GEO markets. C band still exists in the backbone across Asia but Ku and Ka bands are now a mainstay for broadband services to remote locations. New GEO satellites are less in the making although Viasat 3 can potentially lift the prospects for applications to aircraft and vessels which are open to any orbit. The representation on the panel was primarily from the GEO sector and there appeared to be no one that could speak for NGSO operators other than one audience participant from Montana who loved his Starlink terminal.

Panel participants include: Mark Dankberg, Chairman of the Board and Executive Chairman, Viasat Inc., Daniel Gizinski, Chief Strategy Officer – Defense, Comtech, Katherine Gizinski, River Advisors, Kozo Ibata, Deputy Director-General for Global Strategy, Global Strategy Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), Fred Kua, Vice President Sales – Asia & Oceania, ABS, Jeremy Rose, Partner, COMSYS LLP, and Brandon Seir, Chief Commercial Officer, Kacific Broadband Satellites Ltd.

The panel led off with a conversation about the big picture for the industry. Rose of COMSYS said that it is “celebrity driven” by the likes of Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. “NGSO constellations are having a big impact.” Dankberg of Viasat stated that the broadband LEOs have an issue with capacity density. That is, their capacity is distributed across the globe with most of it over oceans and not enough of it available to serve peak demand. In his words, “too much capacity is where there isn’t demand.” The representative from Japan, Ibata of MIC, pointed out that satcom is vital in case of emergencies and disasters, like the earthquake in Japan.

Katherine Gizinski, moderator, asked if “linear TV” is dead. Dankberg said that IP TV (mainly streaming) is going on and in fact satellites can deliver this as well. Seir of Kacific said that all of these investments in space “are expensive” and that there is a concern in developing countries that it is eclipsing local telecom infrastructure. An example might be Cook Islands with 50K inhabitants that has difficulty affording basic IP infrastructure. He highlighted how Kacafic introduced low- cost Ka band VSAT terminals costing around US$700. Kacific has been successful with this offering in India, Papua New Guinea, and Philippines. “We are connecting 500 schools in PNG and Philippines, partnered with Microsoft. We build on this, then find a business in the same community.” He said that they are working on a condosat (shared satellite) for Pakistan.

Dankberg said that 2023 was a difficult year for the industry but he sees progress. His company completed the major acquisition of Inmarsat and is now a global operator with Ka and L band satellites. Recent reports said that Inmarsat produced a significant increase in Viasat revenues. “There is elasticity of demand – we drive down costs (per Mbps) and demand increases.” Viasat 3 with its projected capacity of 1,000 Gbps was intended to contribute to this. However, its launch on May 1, 2023, resulted in a substantial impairment in its service capability due to an “antenna deployment issue”. There are two more coming, he said, and “we will uncover the cause.” He said that they tested “everything else” and it all works. He indicated that he does not like software defined satellites (all the Viasat satellites are pure analog designs, but the Inmarsat 4 and 5 series have transparent digital processors) because he doesn’t like “operating software in space – better to do that on the ground.” He said that politically it is important to have a gateway in the country being served. While the existing Viasat satellites all employ Ka band (they do use Ku band satellites from other operators), the Inmarsat satellites include L band, “which is a valuable asset, particularly for government services.” He added that countries need control of their space systems; this came up in the context of the Ukraine war. His general statement was, “We need a thriving ecosystem of suppliers, insurers, etc.”

Kua of ABS explained that ABS no longer stands for Asia Broadcast Satellite. Due to a repositioning by the new owners, it now stands for Agility Beyond Space. This means that they are aggressively pushing ground segment and NGSO as compared to their previous focus on GEO satellites in the Asia Pacific region.

The discussion about the impact of NGSO gave Dankberg the opportunity to explain that SpaceX “threw an enormous amount of capital at (Starlink).” They offer their service at a low price. He believes that the trend for broadband is “more for terrestrial and less for space.” This affects the military, too. For a satellite system to provide capacity where it is needed, “you need more beams”. The big consumer demand is for streaming video (70% of Internet traffic by his estimate). It may be that multicast data will end up an important approach for streaming to commercial aircraft. Rose said that the wireless operators “stole C band” and that Starlink terminals are “amazing.” But, Sier of Kacific claimed that their GEO customers are “sticking with us for customization.” He said that they have 15K terminals in New Zealand for emergency services.

On crossing the digital divide, Dankberg said that it’s a money issue. He’s looking at ways to make it affordable. Kua of ABS clarified that “it’s not a network gap, it’s a knowledge and investment gap.” For Starlink, there is the open question as to if that system can become profitable after half a decade of investing and growth. Daniel Gizinski of COMTECH correctly stated that they must close the business case – the need for $1 billion plus profit. “When will they get there?”

The panel reviewed the recent World Radio Communication (WRC’23) conference, which closed in Dubai in December last year. Dankberg said that there is still a serious issue with the restriction on Power Flux Density (PFD) from NGSO satellites into areas services by GEO satellites. GEO satellites have priority over NGSO satellites because the NGSO are employing frequencies previously dedicated to satellites in GEO, which operate at fixed longitudes. He expressed concern about Starlink operating outside of the box posed by all of the regulations and assignments. “Now coming to light that Starlink is not following its constraints.” Rose said that it may be time for binding regulation on debris. Dankberg said that Starlink is up against the following: (1) financing – unlimited access to capital, (2) profit, (3) regulatory, and (4) debris.

Panelists at the Satellite Leaders' Luncheon include (from left): Fred Kua, Vice President Sales – Asia & Oceania, ABS; Daniel Gizinski, Chief Strategy Officer – Defense, Comtech; Mark Dankberg, Chairman of the Board and Executive Chairman, Viasat Inc.; Brandon Seir, Chief Commercial Officer, Kacific Broadband Satellites Ltd.; Jeremy Rose, Partner, COMSYS LLP, Kozo Ibata, Deputy Director-General for Global Strategy, Global Strategy Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), and Katherine Gizinski, River Advisors.

Question from the audience, “To what degree can operators of large constellations control it all – a sustainability question.” Dankberg said that his company will focus on special sectors as opposed to consumer broadband. One is aviation, where Viasat is strong. An attendee discussed his use of Starlink on a mountaintop in Montana, where the temperature dips down to -68F. His Internet service was working great while neighbors lost their cable connection. But, the Starlink satellite design is evolving as requirements increase. Dankberg pointed out that the first generation of which there are 3,000 weighs about 500 kg while the next generation came in closer to 1,200 kg. Increased mass means increased cost of the spacecraft and the launch. “Their driving down the cost of service could result in domination and non-sustainability.” Chris Baugh of NSR Research spoke from the audience saying that there is a perception that Starlink doesn’t have to be profitable. Starlink dominance is a perception based on how many launches and satellites continue to be introduced by Starlink and that current customers seem very satisfied. Ultimately, the finances of Starlink will come back to the margins obtained from service to all customer groups, which is why they are pursuing every market, both civilian and government.

Satellite Mobile in Your Pocket

This panel explored the emerging service of device-to-device (D2D) communications with representatives from across the emerging ecosystem for D2D communications, particularly to non or lightly modified mobile phones.

Panelists include: Brian Aziz, Executive Director, Direct-to-Device, Iridium, Christopher Baugh, Partner, NSR (an Analysys Mason Company), Mark Dankberg, Chairman of the Board and Executive Chairman, Viasat Inc., Dan Dooley, CCO, Lynk, and Phillip Henderson, CEO, Vodafone Cook Islands. Chris Baugh of NSR acted as panel moderator.

Dankberg offered that D2D is about connectivity to the standard device you use for mobile services. It can be automotive, IoT, SOS services, etc. Texting, possibly voice and images. It’s a question of the $ per month for the service. “This is not in the same ballpark as terrestrial cellular or broadband.” Dooley of Lynk (a potential D2D satellite provider) agreed and claimed that it is “here now but will take time and funding, we are doing it today for small messaging and periodic.” Aziz of Iridium said that their second-generation constellation provides D2D “on a global basis” and probably in real time with their 66 satellite constellation. The second generation, called Iridium NEXT, is backward compatible with the original system initiated in 1998 and has additional features that have not been widely reported. Aziz said that they now support safety messaging and SoS to call centers. Iridium announced an agreement with Qualcomm for Snapdragon. “The issue is the manufacturers don’t want to change their design (and have to incorporate more components at increased cost). Apple has control of all aspects of their hardware and software, but Google and Android is “fragmented”. He cited a pricing hurdle in Africa where subscribers are paying about $2 per month.

Henderson of Vodaphone Cook Islands insisted that subscribers should not have to use a different device. If it’s a roaming service then the local mobile operator can make a charge for it. He wants the cost to him of D2D to be zero and that they cannot add any investment cost on their end. A question from the audience about service in Australia, where there is a “lot of white space”. The rancher wants to automate but there is no coverage. I asked how Iridium can provide this new service since their only spectrum resource is the original L-band assignment of 10 MHz worldwide. Aziz said they can support 100K of users and that Qualcomm would not have supported this effort if the spectrum was inadequate. Dankberg again made the point that national operators, like in Cook Islands, don’t like satellite providers bypassing their system. There is even concern about terrorists.

Observation about this discussion: other than mention of limitations of service (texting, voice and SoS messaging), there was no mention of the limitations of the satellite to ground link. Basically, you must be outside so the antenna on the phone can see at least parts of the sky for a clear line of sight path. Operation inside of buildings is not assured except possibly at windows.

The New Market Pioneers

This plenary panel addressed the digital infrastructure sector, which historically prioritized developed markets and experienced a substantial pivot toward emerging markets and their central hubs in the early part of this decade. “This transformation is propelled by factors including the swift pace of digitalization and governmental efforts to stimulate economic advancement in these areas. Leading the way in this transition are forward-thinking enterprises aiming to harness the yet untapped opportunities presented by emerging markets.” The panel addressed how trends are affecting new investment in this broad region primarily in data centers and cables. Satellite was considered and Mark Dankberg of Viasat was the only participant from the satellite sector.

Panelists include: Mark Dankberg, Chairman of the Board and Executive Chairman, Viasat Inc., Tony Rossabi, Founder & Managing Member, OCOLO, Craig Scroggie, CEO & Managing Director, NEXTDC Limited, Jeff Tench, Executive Vice President, North America and APAC, Vantage Data Centers, Guy Willner, Chairman & Co-founder, IXAfrica, and Joe Zhu, Founder & CEO. Zenlayer.

The challenges addressed by the panel relate more to investment in telecom resources in the various nations of Asia Pacific; no longer can you count on being profitable simply by spending on resources to reach populations, businesses and governments who themselves are strapped for cash. The panel considered the importance of electrical power in developing countries. Some have been blessed with adequate geothermal power, hydroelectric power and even nuclear in some cases. Data centers are particularly hungry for this power which they turn into stored data and information; one can even consider how power and computing are also monetized through cyber currencies like Bitcoin. Satellite communications has been a main stay as the investment is made by others and the resources reside in space. But, the countries are jealous of their prerogatives, which is an impediment to proliferation of broadband services from Starlink, Viasat and others.

With the emphasis of this panel on power demands of telecom infrastructure, Dankberg correctly pointed out the satellite facilities have relatively low power demands. Interesting that the major radio resources in space are all powered by solar panels and backed up by batteries. Ground facilities can be relatively large in power demand but less so for small antennas and terminals. These antennas can be placed directly on user premises and do not require extensive terrestrial facilities such as fiber cables.

In terms of inhibiting issues, data sovereignty and privacy were cited. There is also the need to cool the processors in data centers, which brings in water resources. Dankberg responded to a question about the impact of Starlink on his GEO broadband business by stating that GEO has the advantage of being able to satisfy the peak demand on the ground where it occurs without wasting resources across wide bodies of ocean and desert. He also pointed out that 85 to 95% of traffic is not latency sensitive (e.g., streaming video). He added that the one issue from the WRC late last year is the uncertainty that still surrounds the issue of power flux density limits to protect GEO networks from NGSO satellites that are closer to the earth and required to prevent RFI to GEO terminals and satellites.

Integrating Satellite and Terrestrial Services in Asia/Pacific

The final satellite industry  panel at PTC’24 examined the next steps in integrating and harmonizing satellite and terrestrial infrastructures and services. “For too long, communications satellite systems have largely operated as parallel communications universes and not as components of a shared ecosystem. Historically, satellites were used to supplement terrestrial networks and extend/backhaul telco and cellular coverage but were viewed as just filling in the gaps of the terrestrial systems. Today, satellite industry players are actively participating in the standards bodies designing next generation fixed and mobile systems. Further integration can be foreseen as satellite operators seek partners to roll out more direct-to-consumer broadband services, including direct-to-device mobile services soon. In this way, satellites are becoming more integrated/harmonized with the operations of telcos, cable systems, and mobile service providers.” This panel offered an intermodal review of the expanded integration of these networks and the new roles for satellites in the global network infrastructure. It ended up addressing some strategic issues as well as practical lessons learned with integrating satellite with other facilities.

Panelists include: Gregg Daffner, Emeritus President / CEO, APSCC / GapSat, Timothy Logue, Principal, TJLNova Consulting, Josh Reed, Principal Solution Sales Specialist, Telstra InfraCo, Alexander Schumann, General Manager, Microcom, John Turnbull, Vice President, Enterprise & Cloud, Australia & Pacific, SES, and Ronald van der Breggen, Chief Commercial Officer, Rivada Space Networks.

The presenters represent organizations that either employ satellites as a part of their networks or are dedicated to provide satellite-based resources, in space and/or on the ground. Reed of Telstra, the Australian primary telecom operator with business operations throughout Asia Pacific, said that they offer “a one stop shop”, for international communications through ground stations they own and operate. They do not own their own satellites but rather employ the resources of domestic GEO operators as well as foreign operators such as Intelsat. They address corporate and government needs through SD-WAN and MPLS wide area networking over fiber and satellite. He said that they now offer Starlink LEO to consumers where Telstra handles customer needs. They intend to explore D2D and want to see business-grade LEO services in the future to address business needs. His objective is to give a “seamless experience to customers” out in the country. This is where he sees D2D in the future. Australia is an “open market to foreign satellites, with appropriate licenses.” 

Schumann of Microcom, an Alaska-based provider of satellite and TV services, said that it is “tough work with local telcos who rely on Federal subsidies to keep their obsolete networks going”. His company is reselling Starlink terminals with 5,000 currently installed. Their Pacific Dataport subsidiary has announced its relationship with OneWeb to operate an Alaska gateway.

Van der Breggen of Rivada Space Networks said his organization is “pushing lower latency compared to fiber.” He said that their system offers high security and the ability to put together private networks to link from the European region to remote locations such as Bogotá, Colombia. “It’s tough to align circuits” for a direct connection that extends beyond the primary region. He was asked about the bypassing of the networks of foreign telcos who jealously guard their prerogatives. He admitted that yes, you can go rooftop to rooftop. But this will interface with terrestrial networks using Link Layer switching, but not Ethernet or IP. He asserted that it was a mistake in the year 2000 to “emphasize the last mile to the consumer – it’s difficult to offer service to customers using expensive satellite infrastructure.” He said that Rivada would provide “well-paid for private networks (for industry and government) and then help address the digital divide”.

Turnbull of SES Australia said that SES has learned over time about the value of MEO service from O3b. He initially had 10 beams over Asia Pacific which allowed them to land a beam and provide a “large pipe, then we roll out services to subscribers until the fiber arrives”. From there, O3b provides a reliable backup to protect that fiber, which is likely to be single string in the beginning. With the newly launched mPower series, the satellite can produce “thousands of beams”. He expressed the opinion that it is “hard to work with telcos” if you’re offering Starlink. His approach is to work with the local telco, as in their previous success with the original O3b satellites. In general, the cable addresses the main population but not the secondary. “When we look for a customer, we want someone who needs rugged capacity, with service level agreement (SLA) and a support structure around it.” This sounds a lot like the Intelsat approach to the dual satellite network for Palau, discussed previously.

Tim Logue noted that the PTC organization will have a booth at Satellite’24 in Washington, DC, March 18 – 21, 2024. Members and supporters may have use of the booth through the reservations system being set up.

-----------------------------------------

Bruce Elbert is the Founder and President of Application Strategy LLC.  He is a satellite industry expert, communications engineer, project leader and consultant with over 50 years experience in communications and  space-based systems in the public and private sectors. Areas of expertise include space segment design and operation in all orbit domains, systems architecture and engineering, ground segment systems engineering, development and operation, overall system performance improvement, and organizational development. He has been an expert witness in legal proceedings related to radio communication system performance, patents, construction contracts, service agreements, RFI identification and resolution, and taxation. He can be reached at: bruce@applicationstrategy.com